Road traffic estimation and algorithmic routing in a spatially dependent network
提出一种在空间依赖的道路网络中估计每条边行程时间联合分布的方法，利用独立探测车的实时数据，支持考虑风险偏好的动态路径规划。
ABSTRACT This work concerns a procedure to estimate the joint distribution of the per‐edge travel times in a road traffic network with spatial dependence. The constructed estimator, based on the realized travel times of a collection of independently operating probe vehicles traversing the network, is shown to be consistent and rate‐optimal. The obtained estimates of the joint travel‐time distribution can be used in routing policies. In particular, as realized travel times are observed en route to the destination, spatial dependence can be leveraged to iteratively update the predictive distribution of the remaining travel time. Importantly, we can deal with general objective functions, reflecting the individual traveler's specific risk aversion, including ones that involve the uncertainty of the estimates. Through a series of numerical experiments, we systematically study the estimator's performance in combination with specific routing policies and objective functions.