Being an Emotionally Unaffected Investor: Evidence From Bitcoin
利用社交媒体数据提取比特币市场投资者情绪，发现投资者悲观时是买入良机，乐观时则应回避，情绪信号有助于预测回报。
As one of the most prominent cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin has been at the forefront of a major revolution in the financial and technological sectors. This study utilizes data from social media to extract the emotional tendencies of investors in the Bitcoin market and analyze differences in investor behavior under various emotional features. We find that when investors exhibit reluctance (such as Sadness and Fear) to buy Bitcoin, it is the opportune moment to invest and achieve returns higher than expected. Conversely, when the emotional tone of investors becomes positive (such as Joy and Love), indicating a tendency to invest, we choose to avoid investing. Our research has also revealed that such emotional cues can assist in better predicting returns in the Bitcoin market. Analyzing market emotions contributes to a deeper understanding of market fluctuations and investor behavior. Our findings help stakeholders recognize the role of subjective emotions in the market and provide them with prudent investment advice: avoid relying excessively on the feelings of others, as this may trigger investment losses.