The dual impact of on-chain and off-chain factors on Bitcoin market efficiency
研究了2014年4月至2022年4月间，链上因素（活跃钱包数、交易费、交易量）和链下因素（流动性、投资者关注）如何影响比特币市场效率，发现不同发展阶段影响机制不同。
This paper examines how on-chain factors (number of active wallets, transaction fees, and transaction volume) and off-chain factors (liquidity and investor attention) impact Bitcoin market efficiency from April 2014 to April 2022. We identify three periods in Bitcoin’s market development: development, growth, and additional development stage. We propose three hypotheses: (1) increased investor attention enhances market efficiency, (2) a rise in active users improves efficiency directly and through liquidity and investor attention, and (3) higher transaction fees and on-chain volume positively impact efficiency directly and indirectly. Our findings support these hypotheses during Bitcoin’s development and growth periods. However, in the additional development stage, the total effect of active users, transaction fees, and transaction volume becomes negative when considering mediating effects, and largely insignificant when focusing on direct effects. Additionally, we find increased netflow between whales and exchanges, a proxy for institutional activity, improves efficiency. We conclude that as Bitcoin’s market develops, factors such as changing user composition and increased regulatory scrutiny alter the dynamics of on-chain factors and their influence on market efficiency.