The economic consequences of fertilizer supply shocks
通过新闻文本分析构建化肥供应指数，研究全球化肥供应冲击如何影响葡萄牙食品行业的价格、市场活动和劳动力市场，揭示冲击在小型开放经济中的传导机制。
This paper develops a fertilizer supply index to measure global fertilizer supply disruptions using text-mining analysis of newspaper articles from over 30 countries. The index captures events including export restrictions, tariff changes, raw material shortages, and international sanctions. Using a structural BVAR framework, the analysis examines how fertilizer supply shocks affect Portugal’s food industry across three dimensions: market activity (domestic and foreign turnover), output prices, and labor market dynamics. The results show that fertilizer supply shocks trigger immediate increases in output prices across both domestic and foreign markets, with firms passing input costs to consumers. Labor market responses are delayed: wages and hours worked remain stable initially before rising, consistent with delayed adjustment to inflation expectations. This research also provides new evidence on how a critical agricultural input shocks propagate through food supply chains in a small open economy, with implications for both policymaking and industry strategy. • A fertilizer supply index tracks global disruptions through news analysis. • Fertilizer supply shocks quickly impact the food industry. • The shocks propagate throughout the broader macroeconomy.