National and foreign trade elasticities: a spatial econometrics approach
用空间自回归引力模型估计区域贸易弹性，发现国内贸易弹性大于国外，并揭示了贸易流中的互补与竞争空间效应。
The literature estimating trade elasticities at the regional level has overlooked spatial dependence in trade flows, raising concerns about the reliability of results. We address this problem by defining a spatial autoregressive gravity equation that captures spatial spillovers from trade between neighbouring regions. We estimate trade elasticities differentiating between goods imported from regions within the same country (national elasticities) and regions located in third countries (foreign elasticities). The elasticities are identified using a precise measure of iceberg trade costs including economic, engineering and logistic factors. National elasticities are consistently larger than foreign elasticities. We find sizable complementary and competition spatial effects.