Four archetypes of organizing corporate foresight at the intermediate maturity stage: A multiple case study
通过对11家中等成熟度企业的多案例研究，识别出四种企业前瞻系统原型（功能驱动型、独立前瞻单元、高管团队主导、平台型），分析其优缺点及合法化机会，为管理者提供指导。
Systematizing corporate foresight and integrating it into decision-making is critical to harness its value. However, many companies face challenges due to limited legitimacy, leading to scarce resources and a lack of commitment. Previous research has paid little attention to various ways to develop foresight capability, particularly at the intermediate stage of foresight maturity, where legitimacy is often lacking. We address this issue by exploring alternative organizing models to demonstrate foresight's value within firms. We conceptualize a corporate foresight system (CFS) comprising structures, roles, and activities for managing futures knowledge. Through a multiple case study of eleven large companies with intermediate foresight maturity, we identify four legitimate CFS archetypes: function-driven, independent foresight unit, executive team-led, and platform-based models. Using 43 semi-structured interviews, a pre-questionnaire survey, and workshops, we characterize these archetypes, examine their strengths and weaknesses and identify ‘windows of opportunity’ for further legitimation by extending and refining an initial CFS. Theoretically, we develop the concept of CFS, identify four CFS archetypes for companies with intermediate foresight maturity, and discuss how they contribute to demonstrating foresight's value within firms. Practically, our findings provide guidance for managers seeking to develop foresight capability by identifying approaches to legitimize foresight within an organization. • Corporate foresight systems (CFS) integrate futures knowledge into decision-making. • Four archetypal CFSs: function-driven, foresight unit, executive team-led, platform-based • Firms at the intermediate maturity stage, adopt different CFSs to drive foresight's legitimation. • Different CFSs have distinct strengths and weaknesses. • Emerging needs offer ‘windows of opportunity’ for further legitimation by extending initial CFSs.