Net-Zero Policy vs Energy Security: The Impact on GCC Countries
研究分析了海湾合作委员会国家石油出口组合的风险，发现进口国可再生能源份额上升会显著增加出口组合波动性，但对进口国油市波动的负面影响有缓解作用。
Gulf Cooperation Council countries have accumulated large oil portfolio revenues. However, the world economy is seeking to reduce carbon emissions, and in turn, its reliance on fossil fuel resources through investments in renewable energy resources. The aim of this research is to analyze oil portfolio risk from an exporters' perspective, highlighting how relevant determinants, such as the increasing penetration of renewables in the importer counterparties, and financial and policy uncertainty, increase the volatility of oil export portfolios. We construct oil portfolios for four Gulf Cooperation Council countries (Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates) from 2008 to 2018, and compute volatility spillovers à la Diebold and Yilrnaz. Then, the effects of policy and economic variables on volatility spillover indices are estimated using different panel linear regression models. We find rising renewable market shares significantly affects oil export portfolio risks and reduces adverse impacts on importing countries of oil market fluctuations.