Migration and the epidemiological approach: Time and self-selection into foreign ancestries matter
指出流行病学方法中依赖外国祖先识别受访者可能因自我选择和移民时间差异导致估计偏差，并通过理论框架和两个经典研究案例验证了这种偏差的实证重要性。
The epidemiological approach in comparative development uses data on individuals of immigrant origin to study cultural persistence, the determinants of cultural norms, and the effects of genetic traits. A common assumption of this methodology is its susceptibility to attenuation bias. We challenge it by demonstrating how the increasing reliance on foreign ancestries to identify respondents’ origins can introduce confounding biases. Specifically, self-selection in reporting foreign ancestry and unobserved variation in ancestral migration timing may lead to inflated estimates. We formalize these mechanisms through a theoretical framework and illustrate their empirical significance by reassessing key findings from influential studies by Fernández and Fogli (2006) and Giuliano and Nunn (2021). • The epidemiological approach relies on data on natives of foreign ancestry. • A very large share of the native population does not report any foreign ancestry. • Reporting correlates with unobserved determinants of the cultural traits. • A simple framework describes the analytical challenges for the econometric analysis. • We show the empirical relevance of these challenges with two illustrative examples.