Workers’ Perceptions of Earnings Growth and Employment Risk
利用面板数据，研究工人对收入增长预期和离职可能性的主观信念，分析其随生命周期和经济周期的变化，以及与宏观经济预期和个人经历的关系。
In addition to realized earnings and employment shocks, forward-looking individuals are presumed to condition their consumption and labor supply decisions on their subjective beliefs about future labor market risks. This paper uses rich panel data to document considerable individual heterogeneity in earnings growth expectations and in the perceived likelihood of voluntary and involuntary job exits. We examine how expectations evolve over the working life and business cycle and how they covary with macroeconomic expectations and personal experiences. While largely consistent with patterns in realized outcomes, our findings highlight the unanticipated nature of the pandemic recession and the ensuing resignation wave.