The value of nuclear power plants’ flexibility: A multistage stochastic dynamic programming approach
将核电站的灵活性建模为一种存量约束，通过随机动态规划方法评估其经济价值，发现提高灵活性虽能提升系统效率和可再生能源整合，但可能降低核电站运营商的利润。
In future power systems dominated by intermittent renewable generation, nuclear power plants will increasingly need to follow uncertain loads. However, regulatory and technical constraints limit the frequency of load-following operations, making their efficient allocation crucial. This paper explores the economic value of nuclear flexibility by modeling it as a stock constraint within a stochastic dynamic programming framework. We show how non-convex constraints at the reactor-scale translate to the fleet level through a linearized approximation, allowing for the analysis of multiple reactors operating under flexibility constraints. Applying this model to the French electricity system in 2035 using the Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP) algorithm, we estimate a marginal value of EUR 100/MW for the current flexibility level of the French nuclear fleet. Our results show that increased nuclear flexibility enhances system-wide cost efficiency and improves the integration of renewables, with solar generation seeing the largest benefits. However, our findings suggest a potential misalignment with the profit-maximizing goals of individual nuclear operators, which may deter them from increasing flexibility despite its necessity for the system. • Nuclear flexibility is modeled as a stock constraint on load-cycling operations. • We model the French nuclear flexibility in 2035 using the SDDP algorithm. • Increasing nuclear flexibility benefits the system but creates winners and losers. • Nuclear operators’ profits drop with flexibility, misaligning social and private goals.