Global energy transition under geopolitical risks: An empirical investigation
利用41国2003-2021年月度面板数据，通过固定效应和调节效应模型，发现地缘政治风险通过加剧价格波动、扰乱供应链和改变政策优先级显著阻碍能源转型，但可再生能源产能强、财政机制健全和劳动力市场灵活的国家能更好缓解这些影响。
The global energy transition is crucial for sustainable development, but is vulnerable to geopolitical risks , leading to market turbulence, rising uncertainty and impeding policy implementation. Previous studies have mostly focused on energy security and geopolitical instability, but their systemic impact on energy transition remains unexplored. This study analyzes this relationship through fixed-effects regression and moderated-effects modeling using monthly panel data for 41 countries over the period 2003–2021. It finds that geopolitical risks significantly hinder the energy transition by exacerbating price volatility, disrupting supply chains, and changing policy priorities. However, countries with strong renewable energy capacity, sound fiscal mechanisms, and flexible labor markets are better able to mitigate these effects, while resource-dependent and militarized economies face greater delays. This study integrates geopolitical risks into the energy transition framework, provides empirical evidence and emphasizes that Governments should increase energy resilience, expand domestic renewable energy production and implement sound fiscal policies to cope with geopolitical uncertainty.