三部门跨期均衡模型中的经济周期波动

Business cycles fluctuations in three-sector intertemporal equilibrium models

Journal of Economic Theory · 2025
被引 0
人大 AABS 4

中文导读

在无摩擦的三部门跨期均衡模型中,提出消费者偏好是驱动内生经济周期波动的关键机制,通过部门资本密集度差异和跨期消费权衡产生持续波动。

Abstract

This paper introduces a novel mechanism driving endogenous business cycle fluctuations within a frictionless three-sector intertemporal equilibrium model. We emphasize the critical role of consumer preferences as a primary driver of cyclical dynamics by considering a consumption bundle composed of a pure consumption good and a mixed consumption-investment good that simultaneously serves as both a final consumption good and a capital-accumulating investment good. Endogenous fluctuations naturally arise from sectoral capital intensity differences, an intertemporal consumption trade-off between the two goods, or the interaction of both mechanisms. We offer a detailed characterization of the economy's dynamics, identifying the Hopf bifurcation conditions that trigger persistent cyclical behavior. Additionally, we explore the periodicity of the resulting limit cycles, providing insights into how shifts in preferences and sectoral complementarities can generate self-sustained macroeconomic fluctuations.

内生经济波动三部门均衡模型消费偏好霍普夫分岔