A Measure of Trend Wage Inflation
将研究价格通胀的时间序列模型应用于微观工人小时工资数据，构建了一个能过滤噪音、量化个体因素重要性并与劳动力市场紧张程度高度相关的名义工资增长指标，可作为实时工资压力指标和未来工资增长的预测器。
ABSTRACT We extend time‐series models that have so far been used to study price inflation and apply them to a microlevel data set containing worker‐level information on hourly wages. We construct a measure of aggregate nominal wage growth that (i) filters out noise and very transitory movements, (ii) quantifies the importance of idiosyncratic factors for aggregate wage dynamics, and (iii) strongly co‐moves with labor market tightness, unlike existing indicators of wage inflation. We show that our measure is a reliable real‐time indicator of wage pressures and a good predictor of future wage growth.