Managing tourism in Antarctica: impacts, forecasts, and suitable economic instruments
本文预测南极游客数量十年内可能翻两番，并评估了多种经济工具在减少旅游影响方面的效果，为政策制定者提供管理建议。
Rapid growth in tourism to Antarctica has led the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Parties to launch a multi-year process to develop a framework for managing Antarctic tourism. Managing tourism in this region poses particular challenges, given the remoteness, ecological sensitivity and complex institutional systems. Approximately 65% of the current 120,000+ Antarctic cruise tourists travel on ‘expedition’ vessels that allow landfall. Landings are concentrated in relatively few locations, with potential for localised impacts. All vessels, including larger ‘cruise-only’ vessels that do not land passengers, generate carbon emissions, thus indirectly impacting the region. Using historical data, we forecast that tourist numbers could quadruple from current levels in ten years, with the largest growth occurring within the ‘landed’ sector. With these forecasts in mind, we consider a variety of price-based, quantity-based, and ‘market-friction’ economic instruments and assess their potential effectiveness (curtailing impacts or slowing growth in landings) and their potential acceptability/suitability (within existing governance systems) in this unique place. Our analysis suggests that it may be possible to forestall impacts by complementing existing regulations and guidelines with a combination of quantity-based instruments, nudging, and tighter certification. There are, nonetheless, practical difficulties, including the contrasting interests, values and political priorities of the twenty-nine Consultative Parties.