Asymmetric Good and Bad Volatility Transmission Mechanism: Moderating Role of Global Uncertainties
首次量化了九大伊斯兰金融市场间好与坏波动的传导，发现坏波动溢出影响更大，且地缘政治风险、油价不确定性和金融压力分别起负向和正向调节作用。
ABSTRACT This research article represents the first attempt to quantify good and bad volatility interconnections among the top nine Islamic financial markets, which are classified based on their global share in Islamic finance banking assets by the World Economic Forum. The study employs a time‐ and frequency‐based generalised VAR framework. Additionally, we explore the moderating effects of global financial stress, geopolitical risk, and commodity market shocks on both short‐term and long‐term good and bad volatility interconnections. The findings suggest that, on average, forecast error variances are more greatly influenced by bad volatility spillovers rather than good ones. In the short term, the equity markets in the UAE, Indonesia, Kuwait, and Qatar exhibit a higher propensity to transmit bad volatility shocks compared to good ones. In the long run, the financial markets in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Kuwait, both conventional and Islamic, contribute more to bad volatility spillovers than to good ones when forecasting volatility over a 10‐period horizon for all other markets. Furthermore, in the short term, the financial markets in the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain receive higher bad volatility shocks compared to good ones. However, in the long term, the financial markets in Pakistan, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Kuwait, both conventional and Islamic, are more susceptible to bad volatility spillovers. The findings also indicate that geopolitical risk has a negative moderating effect on overall, short‐term, and long‐term good volatility interconnections. Conversely, oil price uncertainty and financial stress have a positive moderating impact on overall, short‐term, and long‐term bad volatility interconnections.