Automation, education, and population: Dynamic effects in an OLG growth and fertility model
该研究构建了一个包含教育、生育决策和自动化的世代交叠增长模型，分析了人口老龄化与自动化的相互作用，并模拟了美国1970-2021年的趋势，发现低技能工人生育率下降而高技能工人上升，还探讨了自动化和人口冲击以及减少不平等的政策。
We address two main structural changes occurring in developed countries: the rise of automation and population ageing. Using an R&D-based growth model under an OLG framework, we consider education and fertility decisions, as well as automation in the production process, to explore the interplay between population ageing and automation. The results reveal dynamics that align with the US trends from 1970 to 2021. In particular, in response to increasing real wages, the model captures a decline in the fertility rate for low-skilled workers but an increase for high-skilled workers, consistent with observed data. We also analyze the model’s response to shocks related to automation and demographics (fertility vs. longevity), as well as policy instruments designed to reduce inequality.