Geopolitical alignment, outside options, and inward FDI: an integrated framework and policy pathways
本文构建了一个整合框架，分析地缘政治结盟如何影响跨国公司的投资策略和东道国投资促进机构的政策选择，为理解地缘政治与FDI的互动提供了新视角。
Abstract This paper examines the interplay of geopolitics, multinational enterprise (MNE) strategies, and host-country policies in shaping foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. We move beyond the traditional focus on MNE decisions by incorporating insights from international relations theory to analyze how geopolitical alignment influences MNE global strategies and host-country policy responses. We develop a framework that considers three main dimensions related to home and host countries: their political alignment, which affects their respective availability of outside options, and the technology gap between them and the political system in the host country. On this basis, we explore the dynamic interplay between international geopolitical agendas, MNE investment strategies, and local investment promotion agency (IPA) policy choices. Our analysis shows that while home–host geopolitical alignment can facilitate FDI and simplify policy choices, particularly in democracies, the absence of alignment necessitates a more nuanced IPA response. Our research indicates that IPA policies must consider geopolitical alignment, benefits distribution across various stakeholders, and the need to foster embeddedness and long-term engagement.