The impact of the Crimea annexation on agricultural trade: A structural gravity approach
研究了2014年俄罗斯吞并克里米亚对全球农产品贸易的影响，用结构引力模型区分战争和制裁的效果，发现俄罗斯和乌克兰贸易在吞并后受益，但制裁对俄罗斯负面影响更大。
Abstract We examine the impact of the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea on global agricultural trade flows. Using a structural gravity model with a Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator and intra-country sales, we differentiate the effects of the war from those of the sanctions on trade. We estimate conditional General Equilibrium PPML counterfactual scenarios and apply a “conventional two-step approach” to assess trade potential for Russia, Ukraine and European Union members. Our results suggest that while both Russia’s and Ukraine’s trade flows benefited during the post-annexation period, sanctions had a negative impact, with Russia experiencing more severe effects.