Eurozone economic integration: Historical developments and new challenges ahead
梳理了欧元区从成立到疫情后的经济一体化进程，通过新FAVAR模型分析冲击对商业和金融周期的影响，发现生产率是趋同关键，而成本推动冲击从趋同转为分化，财政纪律加剧衰退期分化，欧央行政策则促进趋同。
The paper yields a structural account of economic integration in the Eurozone from its inception to post-pandemic developments by considering a broad range of convergence measures. We introduce a novel FAVAR framework, extracting the structural shocks driving the Eurozone business and financial cycles directly from the cyclical components they generate. Productivity advancements have been the critical trend convergence factor, shaping long swings in real, labor market, and financial dispersion. Subdued cost-push shocks were the key driver of Eurozone nominal and competitiveness convergence throughout 2015 but have become an all-rounded divergence force since then. Fiscal discipline imposed by the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) increased real and financial divergence during all recessionary episodes, while the ECB expansionary monetary policy was a convergence factor. The SGP suspension during the recent pandemic recession and recovery has partially counteracted divergence pressures. Looking forward, convergence will crucially depend on how productivity dynamics and economic growth will fend off further unfavorable cost-push developments, which might become pervasive in a deglobalization-driven new macroeconomic regime.