Sex ratio and fertility preferences in India: A longitudinal analysis
利用印度纵向数据，发现地区性别比失衡（男性过剩）会降低女性对儿子的偏好，这一效应通过改变女性决策权、婚龄、嫁妆价格和家庭暴力接受度等路径实现，提示性别比失衡存在自我纠正机制。
• We conduct a longitudinal analysis of the relationship between district-level sex ratios and women’s son preference. • We find that in districts where sex ratios are skewed (missing women), women have a decreased son preference. • This decline operated via changes in decision-making power, age of marriage, dowry price and domestic violence acceptance. • The findings suggest a self-corrective process of sex ratio imbalance, operating through changes in son preference. Birth control policies and entrenched patriarchal norms have contributed to a highly imbalanced male/female ratio in India. While the impact of son preference on the sex ratio is largely studied, the consequences of a male-skewed sex ratio on women’s fertility preferences remain underexplored. Merging different longitudinal datasets (Indian Census and IHDS panel household survey), this article provides an original empirical analysis of the effect of district-level sex ratios on women’s fertility preferences and the nested pathways of this relationship. Individual and time fixed-effects regressions show that district-level surplus of men negatively affects women’s desired number of sons. The robustness of these findings is confirmed after conducting multiple checks, including controlling for endogeneity by leveraging temperature data from the India meteorological department (1952–2011). The investigation of potential pathways shows that a higher district male/female ratio may make gender norms and the marriage market more favorable to women (via an increase in decision-making power and age of marriage, and a decrease in the dowry price and domestic violence acceptance). We conclude that this self-corrective process which shapes the relationship between sex ratio and son preference in contexts of entrenched patriarchal norms, hinders gender equality.