From transformation to demarcation: explaining the EU’s shifting motivations of the enlargement policy
分析了欧盟扩大政策动机的演变，特别是2022年俄乌战争后，从转型、稳定到划界逻辑的转变，基于1990-2024年欧洲理事会结论的内容分析。
This article examines the evolving motivations underlying the European Union’s (EU) enlargement policy, particularly following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and the accelerated candidacies of Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia. While existing scholarship is built on competing assumptions regarding the EU’s motivation—stressing stability, transformative aims, or the containment of rival great-power influence—these accounts assume unchanging EU motivations. Contrary to such assumptions, we argue that the EU’s enlargement policy has been driven by distinct and shifting ‘policy logics’: transformation, stabilization, demarcation, and cohabitation. Drawing on content analysis of European Council conclusions from 1990 to 2024 and comparative case studies, we show that the hierarchy among these logics has changed over time in response to varying internal challenges within candidate states and external risks. We trace three major phases: the transformative logic dominated the 1990s to early 2010s, stabilization gained prominence from the early 2010s to early 2020s, and a demarcation logic surged from the early 2020s onward, particularly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These findings demonstrate that EU enlargement policy motivations are not static but dynamically reconfigured, offering new insights into how the EU navigates its neighborhood amidst shifting geopolitical conditions.