Measuring Multidimensional Inequality and Its Impact on Civil War Outbreak in 193 Countries, 1810–2010
构建了一个涵盖193个国家、跨越200年的复合不平等指数，发现国内多维不平等（收入、健康、土地）会因果性地增加内战爆发风险，对高低收入国家均有警示。
ABSTRACT We construct an index of composite inequality covering 193 countries worldwide. For a substantial and unprecedented number of countries, we can trace the long‐term evolution of inequality over 200 years, from 1810 to 2010. This composite index of inequality includes not only post‐tax income inequality but also health and land inequalities. We observe that the risk of a civil war outbreak is consistently increasing with higher levels of within‐country inequality. By applying an instrumental variable approach, we discover that the impact of multidimensional inequality on civil war is causal. This finding is not only relevant for unstable low‐ and middle‐income countries like Chad or South Sudan but also has implications for high‐income countries, such as the United States and the United Kingdom, for which we predict an increased likelihood of civil war.