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自动化风险有多可怕?来自大规模调查实验的证据

How scary is the risk of automation? Evidence from a large-scale survey experiment

Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization · 2025
被引 7 · 同刊同年前 2%
ABS 3

中文导读

通过近6000人的选择实验,发现受访者愿意接受近20%的瑞士中位年薪降幅来降低10个百分点的自动化风险,且风险规避程度随基线风险上升而增加。

Abstract

Technological advancements have always shaped labor markets; however, emerging AI innovations like ChatGPT are now putting occupations previously considered "safe" from technological substitution at significant risk of automation. This study examines individuals' willingness to pay to reduce automation risk, using a discrete-choice experiment conducted with nearly 6000 participants. Results reveal that respondents accept a salary reduction of almost 20 % of the Swiss median annual gross wage to reduce their automation risk by 10 percentage points or, conversely, demand a 20 % risk premium to accept an equivalent increase in automation risk. Interestingly, the study finds that WTP for risk reduction increases with higher baseline automation risk levels, contrary to patterns observed in other contexts. While preferences are generally homogeneous, differences exist between demographic groups. Men, younger and risk-tolerant individuals, and those with higher education show lower willingness to pay for reduced automation risk. By having respondents express preferences for hypothetical children, the study also explores potential gender biases, finding no significant differences in willingness to pay for reduced automation risk, educational degrees, hierarchical position, or wage based on the child's gender.

劳动经济学人工智能与就业行为经济学技术变革