Public Long‐Term Care Insurance and Retirement Intentions of Urban Workers: Evidence From China
基于中国健康与养老追踪调查数据，采用双重差分法发现公共长期护理保险显著提高了城市工人延迟退休的意愿和预期退休年龄，尤其对女性、自雇者及有家庭成员符合保险资格者影响更大，机制包括减少家庭时间支持和改善心理健康。
While many studies examine the effects of long-term care insurance (LTCI) on labor supply and retirement behaviors, its effect on retirement intentions-offering certain advantages over actual behaviors-remains unclear. This study applies a difference-in-differences design to estimate the effect of China's public LTCI pilots on urban workers' retirement intentions, based on the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. The results indicate that LTCI significantly increases workers' probability of intending to delay retirement and their intended retirement age, especially for LTCI providing both service and cash benefits. Moreover, the effects are larger among female, self-employed workers, and workers whose family members with LTCI eligibility, as these subgroups are more likely to be caregivers and caregivers' effect is larger. Mechanism analysis reveals that LTCI reduces time support within the family and improves mental health, both of which contribute to delayed retirement intentions. A negative effect through the mitigation of precautionary saving motives by LTCI also exists, but it is subtler.