Public perceptions of defence policy in times of crisis: evidence from France during the Ukraine war
利用法国2021-2022年三轮调查数据，研究乌克兰战争如何影响公众对国防政策的态度，发现战争并未根本改变舆论结构，而是增强了具体性和显著性的影响，表明公众反应是深思熟虑而非应激性的。
This study examines how the Ukraine war, a critical focusing event within the broader context of rising tensions between Russia and the West, influenced public perceptions of defence policy in France. Defence issues in France are typically characterised by a permissive consensus, with limited public scrutiny outside moments of crisis. Using three-wave survey data (July 2021, March 2022, and July 2022), we analyse shifts in public opinion on key defence dimensions, including military spending, international cooperation, and high-intensity combat operations. Employing regression and cluster analyses, we assess both the stability of defence-related concerns and the impact of issue attributes – emotional intensity, concreteness, and obtrusiveness – on perceived importance over time. Our findings reveal that the Ukraine war did not fundamentally alter the structure of public opinion on defence issues. Instead, the relative influence of concreteness and obtrusiveness increased over time, suggesting a deliberative rather than a reactive public response. These results challenge the assumption that crises inherently destabilise public opinion and highlight the resilience of defence attitudes. Our study thus underscores the need for policymakers to account for longer-term public concerns rather than relying solely on crisis-driven shifts when shaping defence policy.