Bayesian unit-level models for longitudinal survey data under informative sampling: an analysis of expected job loss using the Household Pulse Survey
针对美国人口普查局家庭脉搏调查的纵向数据，提出贝叶斯单位级模型估计预期失业，通过伪似然和吉布斯采样处理信息性抽样，模拟和实证均显示优于传统方法。
Abstract The Household Pulse Survey (HPS), released by the US Census Bureau at the start of the coronavirus pandemic, gathers timely information about the societal and economic impacts of coronavirus. The first phase of the survey was launched in April 2020 and ran for 12 weeks. To track the immediate impact of the pandemic, individual respondents during this phase were re-sampled for up to three consecutive weeks. Motivated by expected job loss during the pandemic, using public-use microdata, this work proposes unit-level, model-based estimators that incorporate longitudinal dependence at both the response and domain level. In particular, using a pseudo-likelihood, we consider a Bayesian hierarchical unit-level, model-based approach for both Gaussian and binary response data under informative sampling. To facilitate construction of these model-based estimates, we develop an efficient Gibbs sampler. An empirical simulation study is conducted to compare the proposed approach to models that do not account for unit-level longitudinal correlation. Finally, using public-use HPS micro-data, we provide an analysis of ‘expected job loss’ that compares both design- and model-based estimators and demonstrates superior performance for the proposed model-based approaches.