Uncertainty and Innovation: Assessing the Impact of Economic, Monetary, Trade, and Fiscal Shocks in Japan and the United States
研究了1987至2022年间美国与日本的经济政策、货币政策、贸易政策和财政政策不确定性对创新的负面影响，但发现货币和贸易政策不确定性在日本、货币政策不确定性在美国反而有正面作用。
ABSTRACT In today's competitive global economy, innovation is crucial for growth, competitiveness and societal progress. This study examines the relationship between various economic uncertainties and innovation outputs from 1987 to 2022 in the United States and Japan. Using the PMG‐ARDL model, it analyzes the effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU), monetary policy uncertainty (MPU), trade policy uncertainty (TPU) and fiscal policy uncertainty (FPU) on innovation. Pre‐estimation techniques, including CD analysis, unit root analysis and cointegration analysis, ensure methodological rigour. The findings indicate that EPU, MPU, TPU and FPU negatively affect ICT exports and patent applications (PTA), as uncertainties hinder business decision‐making and investment in research and development. However, MPU and TPU positively affect innovation in Japan, and MPU has a positive effect in the United States. These results highlight the importance of considering country‐specific dynamics in policy formulation. Policymakers should enhance transparency, stability and communication to foster innovation. This study contributes by exploring the diverse impacts of economic uncertainties on innovation.