Who Holds Sovereign Debt and Why It Matters
研究了投资者构成是否影响主权债务市场,发现私人非银行投资者对新兴市场债务需求价格弹性最大,其缺失会放大债务对收益率的影响。
Abstract This paper studies whether investor composition affects the sovereign debt market. We construct a data set of sovereign debt holdings by foreign and domestic bank, nonbank private and official investors for 101 countries across three decades. Compared with other investors, private nonbank investors absorb a disproportionate share of the debt supply, and their demand for emerging market debt is most price responsive. A counterfactual analysis of emerging market sovereigns shows a 10% increase in debt leads to a 5.8% yield increase but an outsized 8.4% increase without nonbank investors. We conclude that sovereigns are vulnerable to the loss of nonbanks.