The impact of violence on the dynamics of migration: Evidence from the Mexican Revolution
利用墨西哥革命期间的高频数据，发现局部暴力导致移民美国短期激增60%，但仅持续七个月后恢复至冲突前水平，且未发现长期移民增加。
Forced displacement from conflict has risen sharply in recent decades, yet little is known about how violence impacts migration dynamics in the short run or over a longer horizon. Using novel high-frequency data during the Mexican Revolution (1910-1917), one of history’s deadliest conflicts, we find that localized violence caused a sharp but temporary 60 percent spike in migration to the US, lasting only seven months before reverting to pre-conflict levels. We do not find evidence of increased migration after the Revolution, suggesting that refugee networks did not spur significant chain migration, even during an era of relatively open borders.