Is yield response enough? Drought impacts on crop acreage throughout the production cycle
研究了2001至2023年美国县域玉米和大豆生产中，干旱如何通过种植面积决策（计划面积、未播种、弃收）影响总产量，发现面积决策可解释高达25%和20%的产量损失，且干旱影响贯穿整个作物年。
Abstract Climate change is amplifying the threat of drought to food security. Despite a growing literature examining how drought affects crop yield, previous studies have mostly overlooked the impacts of drought on production through planting and harvesting decisions, which are crucial climate adaptation strategies for farmers. To address this gap, we study corn and soybean production in U.S. counties from 2001 to 2023, examining drought impacts on acreage decisions—planned acres, prevented planting, crop abandonment—and yield within a unified framework. Decomposition analysis shows that, together, acreage decisions account for up to 25% and 20% of drought impacts on corn and soybean production, respectively. Moreover, drought affects production throughout the crop year, not solely during the growing season. Specifications that omit preplanting‐ and planting‐season drought underestimate the adverse impacts of growing‐season drought on the harvested ratio, yield, and production of corn and soybeans. Our findings highlight the importance of considering adaptive behavioral responses when quantifying climate‐related damage in agriculture.