Weather-induced power plant outages: Empirical evidence from hydro and thermal generators in Europe
利用2017-2023年欧洲发电厂停运与天气的日度面板数据，研究发现极端温度、洪水和干旱显著增加水电和火电的停运风险，且突发极端天气更易引发非计划停运，提示能源系统需增强气候韧性。
This paper investigates how extreme weather conditions affect power generators across Europe, with a focus on the differing vulnerabilities and adaptive responses of hydropower and thermal plants. Using a granular panel dataset of daily power plant outages and local weather conditions (2017–2023), we assess the influence of extreme temperatures, floods, and droughts on outage risks. We distinguish between forced and planned outages to identify how operators anticipate or react to weather-related stress. Our findings show that extreme weather events raise outage risks across multiple technologies, though their responses vary. Sudden shocks, such as unexpected temperature extremes, are more likely to trigger unplanned operational failures, while planned outages tend to align with longer-term maintenance cycles rather than immediate environmental pressures. These results highlight the need for climate-resilient strategies to protect energy systems from growing weather variability.