The Impact of China's Retaliatory Tariffs on US Agricultural Exports During the 2018/2019 US–China Trade War
研究了中国在2018/2019年中美贸易战中加征报复性关税对美国农产品出口的影响，发现关税每提高10%，对华出口下降1.45%-2.14%，但对其他38个主要进口国的出口增加0.36%-0.58%，贸易转移效应抵消了约77%-84%的对华出口损失。
ABSTRACT In the context of the 2018/2019 US–China trade war, the Chinese government responded to President Trump's tariffs by imposing retaliatory tariffs, particularly targeting US agricultural products such as soybeans. This paper employs a novel instrumental variable approach to assess the causal effect of China's retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural exports, both to China and its primary third‐party importers. The analysis reveals that a 10% increase in retaliatory tariffs on a US agricultural export results in approximately a 1.45%–2.14% reduction in exports to China, alongside a 0.36%–0.58% increase in exports to 38 other major importing nations. In monetary terms, these elasticities translate to estimated annual export losses ranging from 6.91 billion USD to 10.19 billion USD in the Chinese market, contrasted with export gains of 5.30 billion USD to 8.54 billion USD in alternative markets. The findings demonstrate a substantial trade deflection effect, wherein the expansion of exports to third‐party markets counterbalances approximately 76.7%–83.8% of the export contraction in the Chinese market.