On life table measures of mortality shocks
提出一种新的边际生命期望度量，用于诊断战争、疫情等短期死亡率冲击，并以芬兰数据验证其在战争伤亡、亚洲流感和COVID-19中的应用。
Abstract Shocks of short duration on mortality may be caused, e.g. by wars, adverse weather conditions, or epidemics. Although life table methods are a preferred approach for describing the gradual time evolution of mortality, conventional measures can be problematic when shocks occur. The notion of a synthetic population is typically unappealing, when shocks occur. An alternate marginal measure is defined and applied. It is shown to be closely related to the calculation of life years lost per person. The new marginal life expectancy measure can be generally useful as a diagnostic tool. Applications to war casualties, Asian influenza, and COVID-19, are developed using data from Finland. Less obvious applications are pointed out. If shocks hit hard ages in which mortality is low, calculating absolute numbers of lost years may be more useful. The role of the proposed measure among other risk measures is discussed.