Projections of Earth’s technosphere: Scenario modeling, worldbuilding, and overview of remotely detectable technosignatures
本研究运用未来学方法构建了十个地球千年后情景，分析技术圈的可观测特征，发现二氧化氮可作为技术特征区分不同发展阶段，部分情景与工业化前地球光谱不可区分。
This study uses methods from futures studies to develop a set of ten self-consistent scenarios for Earth’s 1000-year future, which can serve as examples for defining technosignature search strategies. We apply a novel worldbuilding pipeline that evaluates the dimensions of human needs in each scenario as a basis for defining the observable properties of the technosphere. Our scenarios include three with zero-growth stability, two that have collapsed into a stable state, one that oscillates between growth and collapse, and four that continue to grow. Only one scenario includes rapid growth that could lead to interstellar expansion. We examine absorption spectral features for a few scenarios to illustrate that nitrogen dioxide can serve as a technosignature to distinguish between present-day Earth, pre-agricultural Earth, and an industrial 1000-year future Earth. Three of our scenarios are spectrally indistinguishable from pre-agricultural Earth, even though these scenarios include expansive technospheres. Up to nine of these scenarios could represent steady-state examples that could persist for much longer timescales, and it remains possible that short-duration technospheres could be the most abundant. Our scenario set provides the basis for further systematic thinking about technosignature detection as well as for imagining a broad range of possibilities for Earth’s future. • Ten scenarios of Earth’s 1000-year future show a range of plausible technospheres. • Technosignatures depend on the scenario’s political, social, and economic factors. • Three scenarios achieved zero-growth stability, and only one shows rapid expansion. • Three scenarios are spectrally indistinguishable from preindustrial Earth. • These scenarios represent steady-state civilizations or could continue evolving.