Ambient Ozone and Planting Decision: Evidence From US Crop Acreage
利用上风向臭氧变化作为外生冲击，研究发现环境臭氧每增加1ppb，玉米和大豆种植面积减少1.59%-1.97%，且部分通过转向低敏感作物实现；若不考虑面积调整，2050年产量增长将被低估43%-50%。
ABSTRACT This study leverages the variation in upwind ozone as an arguably exogenous shock for identification and quantifies the impact of ambient ozone on planted acreage of corn and soybeans. Highlighting the importance of behavioral responses, this study finds that a one‐additional ppb of average ambient ozone reduces subsequent plantings of corn and soybean acreage by 1.59%–1.97%. Such ozone‐induced acreage shrinkage is partially achieved through acreage shifts to less‐ozone‐sensitive crops. My prediction results suggest that, when ozone concentrations are projected to fall, the expected rise in corn and soybean production by 2050 would be underestimated by 43.41%–49.72% without considering acreage adjustment.