Spatial heterogeneity in human mobility responses to London’s ultra-low emission zone expansion
利用大规模匿名手机应用数据和扩展中断时间序列模型，量化了伦敦超低排放区扩展对人类出行的因果影响，发现出行在4-8周内先降后恢复，但影响因地理区域和社会人口群体而异，外伦敦因汽车依赖变化最剧烈，并产生空间溢出效应。
The Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) aims to improve air quality by restricting polluting vehicles. While previous relevant research focused on air quality and vehicle counts, its impact on human mobility and socio-spatial inequalities remains underexplored. This study addresses this gap by quantifying the causal impact on human mobility using an extended Interrupted Time Series (ITS) model and large-scale anonymised mobile app data. We observed an initial sudden decrease, followed by a gradual recovery of travel in only 4–8 weeks across all zones. Overall, the change of longer travel distances and commute durations suggests slower travel and a shift to sustainable transport. However, the impact varied significantly across geographical areas and socio-demographic groups. Outer London experienced the most abrupt changes due to car dependence, with spatial spillover effects to surrounding areas. These results highlight the need for targeted policies to ensure an equitable transition to sustainable urban transport.