Beyond a Reasonable Doubt: The Impact of Jurors’ Political Affiliations on Trials: Evidence from North Carolina
利用北卡罗来纳州陪审团组成的日常随机变化，研究发现陪审员中每增加一名独立派，有罪判决比例下降2.93%，定罪率下降2.85个百分点；民主党陪审员更可能被排除，但影响不显著。
This article evaluates the impact of jurors’ political affiliations on trial verdicts in North Carolina. The research design relies on the day-to-day random variation in the composition of jury pools. The results indicate that if there is one additional independent juror in the pool, the percentage of guilty verdicts decreases by 2.93 percent and the conviction rate decreases by 2.85 percentage points. The impact of Democratic jurors is negative but not statistically significant. I also evaluate possible political discrimination in patterns of removing jurors. Democratic jurors are 3.7 percentage points more likely to be removed from a seated jury. The results for independent jurors are positive but not statistically significant. I implement heterogeneity checks and robustness checks. I also use potential jurors’ political affiliations as an instrument for the political affiliations of seated jurors to replicate the analysis and obtain similar results.