Technological sanctions and their unintended consequences: Theory and evidence
研究了技术制裁可能产生的意外后果，发现当被制裁国的技术存量达到制裁国的75%左右时，制裁反而可能催生高生产率本土企业，提升被制裁国整体生产率。
We extend Melitz's (2003) model to demonstrate that technology sanctions can lead to unintended economic consequences when targeting countries with substantial technology stocks. Rather than hindering the sanctioned country's technological progress, sanctions may facilitate the emerge of high-productivity domestic firms that outpace international competitors, ultimately boosting the sanctioned country's overall productivity. Our empirical analysis, using the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model, reveals that when a sanctioned country's technology stock reaches approximately 75 % of the sanctioning country's level, the negative impact of sanctions diminishes, potentially resulting in counterproductive outcomes. Additionally, countries with larger populations demonstrate greater resilience to technology sanctions.