Investigating demand forecasting practices and challenges in Ghana's Manufacturing Pharmaceutical (MPharma) small and medium enterprises (SMEs): insights and recommendations
通过访谈加纳制药中小企业的高管，发现它们主要靠主观判断预测需求，缺乏系统方法，面临数据缺失、技术落后等挑战，对改进预测和供应链效率有参考价值。
An organisation’s ability to accurately forecast future demand can generate considerable competitive advantage through effective planning, reducing inventory costs, and enhancing customer service. This paper investigates how Manufacturing Pharmaceutical (MPharma) small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Ghana forecast demand for their products. A qualitative approach was employed, utilising semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders, including CEOs and managers from various functional areas. This methodology allows for an in-depth understanding of the unique contextual factors influencing forecasting practices in this specific industry and geographical setting. The key findings indicate that MPharma SMEs predominantly use judgemental forecasting methods, and despite receiving significant intermittent orders from customers, systematic intermittent demand forecasting is non-existent among the participating SMEs. Additionally, these organisations face challenges such as a lack of historical and accurate data, dedicated forecasters, and low technology adoption. Forecasting activities are typically performed by managers with domain knowledge but insufficient training. The size and limited financial resources of these SMEs exacerbate these challenges. This research contributes valuable insights into the demand forecasting practices of MPharma SMEs in Ghana, highlighting the need for improved methodologies and training to enhance forecasting accuracy and supply chain efficiency.