Household income expectations: The role of unexpected income changes and aggregate conditions
利用荷兰纵向调查数据，分析意外收入变化和总体经济条件如何影响家庭收入预期、不确定性及预期误差，发现意外收入变化比总体条件更能引发预期修正，且存在过度反应。
We analyse how unexpected income changes and aggregate conditions influence income expectations, their uncertainty, and expectation errors. We use a uniquely rich longitudinal Dutch survey collecting detailed information on the distribution of household income expectations. Our results show that unexpected income changes, much more than aggregate conditions, induce a revision in income expectations across the entire spectrum of the expected income distribution, consistent with extrapolative behaviour. We also document that unexpected income changes increase the uncertainty about future income. Our results provide some evidence of over-reaction, particularly to negative unexpected income changes and among high-income individuals. These effects differ based on an individual’s position in the income distribution, which may be attributed to differences in income dynamics, role of insurance mechanisms, and varying levels of awareness about how unexpected income changes and aggregate conditions impact household finances.