Weathering the Storm: Trade Openness and the Resilience of Agricultural Markets Under Increasing Weather Extremes
研究了全球农业市场更高水平的贸易一体化如何缓解因气候事件频发导致的粮食安全风险，通过模拟不同贸易路径下的市场反应，发现贸易开放能稳定粮食供应并抑制价格波动。
ABSTRACT We analyse how a higher level of trade integration in global agricultural markets can mitigate food‐security risks in a world where agro‐climatic events increase both in frequency and intensity. By incorporating stochastically simulated crop‐yield reductions into a partial‐equilibrium model of global agricultural markets, we compare commodity supply, demand and price responses under two alternative trade pathways: a trade‐liberalised world and a trade‐restricted world. By implementing the same sets of yield reductions (input) on these two pathways and comparing synthesised market outcomes (output), we examine the role of trade as a mechanism for ensuring more resilient agricultural markets. Our findings indicate that trade integration could stabilise food availability and mitigate domestic and world price volatility. While trade policies can play a significant role in mitigating food‐security risks in a climate‐uncertain future, they must be complemented by broader policies to enhance global resilience and food security.