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为什么农民不使用期货和期权进行套期保值?历史基差风险和现金约束的考察

Why Don't Farmers Use Futures and Options for Hedging? An Examination of Historical Basis Risk and Cash Constraints

Journal of Futures Markets · 2025
被引 0
人大 BABS 3

中文导读

利用全美代表性农场数据,研究发现过去5年经历负基差冲击的县,玉米和大豆农场使用期货和期权的概率降低,而现金约束越大的农场使用衍生品也越少。

Abstract

ABSTRACT Agricultural producers face significant price risk, yet studies consistently find farmers use futures and options much less than predicted by optimal hedging models. Using nationally representative farm‐level data, we investigate two underexplored factors that can affect the use of exchange‐traded derivatives: historical basis risk and cash constraints. We show that corn and soybean farms located in counties that experienced a large, negative change in the corn basis between planting and harvest (a negative basis shock ) in the last 5 years are less likely to use futures contracts (6–12 percentage points) and options contracts (3–18 percentage points), but have a greater likelihood of marketing contract use (14–24 percentage points). We also find that farms with greater cash constraints ( lower cash holdings ) are less likely to use futures and options. We show that crop insurance, storage, and cooperative membership are complementary when using futures and options.

农业经济学风险管理期货市场农户行为