Correlation Neglect on Social Media: Effects on Civil Service Applications in China
通过微博现场实验，发现中国大学生接触关于公务员职位的重复负面信息后，会形成更负面的看法，并降低报考公务员考试的意愿，表明相关性忽视会影响现实中的职业选择。
Abstract Social media, on which signals are often correlated, has become a primary source of information. How do people form beliefs when reading correlated signals online? In a field experiment on Weibo, we exposed Chinese college students to redundant negative posts about civil service jobs. Consequently, students developed a 0.16-standard-deviation higher negative view of these jobs and were 11% less likely to register for civil service exams, compared to the control group. We find the same effect in a supplemental online survey experiment, and the effect is moderated by attention. Our study demonstrates that correlation neglect can affect beliefs and real-life outcomes, including career choices.