Interstate conflicts with multiple fronts
本文分析了一个两国在软战线（如媒体宣传）和硬战线（如吞并）上争夺支持者的冲突模型，探讨了意识形态匹配如何影响冲突结果，并以俄乌战争为例说明模型含义。
Abstract This paper analyzes an interstate-conflict model in which two states compete for supporters in the governance of a territory on two socioeconomically linked fronts: soft (for example, media persuasion, propaganda) and hard (for example, annexation, invasion). Supporters enjoy an ego premium when their ideological alignment on the soft front matches the outcome on the hard front. A state’s total gain from a conflict is the difference between the economic gains from the hard front and the cost of forming ideological preferences on the soft front. We propose four scenarios based on the relative size of the ego premium and provide intuition on how competition on the soft front becomes widespread. We explore the implications of the model in the context of the Russian–Ukrainian war.