Risk analysis in basestock inventory systems under short-term fill rate audits
研究了在短期补货率审计下，如何计算基础库存水平并管理未达到目标补货率的风险，为管理者在给定风险水平下精确确定库存水平提供了方法。
We examine a basestock inventory model with service level agreements (SLAs) expressed in terms of short-term/finite-horizon fill rates. We present exact formulas to compute the basestock level for the gamma-distributed demand and devise a procedure for non-parametric demand. We show that increasing the length of the performance review horizon implies an increase in both the estimated basestock levels and the associated estimation errors, although the estimation errors typically grow faster. Moreover, we consider the scenario when the supplier aims to design an inventory system to meet the target fill rate with a given probability. Defining the supplier’s ‘risk’ as the probability of not reaching the target fill rate, we explore utilizing Hoeffding’s inequality and a simulation approach to manage such risk. The decision-maker can use the presented framework to assess the required basestock more precisely under the specified level of risk.