What does the equity term structure tell us about Trump 2.0′s first 100 days in office?
分析了特朗普第二任期头100天的权益期限结构，发现短期资产价格上涨而整体市场下跌，与特朗普政府宣称的短期痛苦换取长期收益的说法不符。
We analyze the equity term structure during Trump 2.0’s first 100 days to examine the narrative from the Trump administration that his policies will bring short-term pain in exchange for long-term gain. We find that the price of short-term assets (assets that entitle the owner to the dividends of the aggregate market over the near term) increased in value, whereas the aggregate market itself decreased in value. This differs from the president’s narrative. The evidence from the pre-election period suggests that investors might have initially overestimated the short- and long-term impacts of Trump’s policies.