Centralized exchanges & proof-of-solvency: The guardians of trust
研究了中心化加密货币交易所的稳定性，通过资产证明披露和AR-GARCH模型分析，发现FTX和Celsius破产对市场冲击最大，稳定币在正常时增强韧性但失败时带来系统风险，交易所需额外储备6%-14%以应对压力。
The stability and transparency of centralized cryptocurrency exchanges have received limited attention, despite their growing role in digital asset markets. This paper analyzes their stability through proof-of-assets disclosures. Using an AR-GARCH framework and MVaR assessment, we evaluate centralized exchange resilience during the extreme events of 2022 within the impersonal trust framework of Shapiro (1987). Our findings highlight that the FTX and Celsius bankruptcies had the most detrimental impact on market stability, while stablecoins played a dual role—enhancing resilience under normal conditions but posing systemic risks in the event of failure. Additionally, exchanges should maintain extra reserves of 6% to 14% to withstand adverse events and improve resilience during periods of stress. Paradoxically, the cryptocurrency ecosystem, designed to reduce reliance on trust, now demands even more “guardians of trust” than traditional finance to create a trustworthy environment for participants. • This paper focuses on the stability of centralized cryptocurrency exchanges. • We use an AR-GARCH framework and Modified Value at Risk on proof-of-assets. • Exchanges should hold 6%–14% in additional reserves to withstand financial stress. • Stablecoins could jeopardize the crypto sphere in the event of systemic failures. • Crypto-ecosystems now rely on more guardians of trust than traditional finance.