Fast to cut, slow to restore: Bank lending responses to IFRS 9 stage migrations
利用欧洲信贷登记数据，研究发现IFRS 9下贷款降级会立即引发信贷收缩，而升级后恢复缓慢，阶段2和阶段3分别起到预警和持久污名作用，可能加剧信贷顺周期性。
We investigate how banks adjust lending and provisioning following credit risk stage migrations under IFRS 9, using loan-level data from the European credit register, AnaCredit. While provisions rise with downgrades and fall with upgrades, lending responses are sharply asymmetric: downgrades prompt immediate credit contraction, while upgrades lead to only cautious recovery. Stage 2 acts as an early-warning signal, and Stage 3 defaults leave a lasting stigma, constraining post-recovery credit. These findings suggest IFRS 9 enhances risk recognition but may amplify procyclical lending, with important policy implications for balancing financial stability and credit access across the cycle.