What are the macroeconomic effects of state-dependent forward guidance?
研究了英格兰银行状态依赖型前瞻指引的宏观经济效应，发现该政策降低了未来政策利率的不确定性，导致产出和价格上升，但影响较小，且预期变化比零售利率下降在传导中作用更大。
ABSTRACT We examine the macroeconomic effects of the Bank of England (BoE)’s state-dependent forward guidance (SDFG). The policy’s timing permits separate identification of SDFG from QE, which is difficult in the EA and US because these policies were announced jointly. A New Keynesian model shows that SDFG reduces uncertainty about the future policy rate. We use this prediction and the timing of the BoE’s SDFG, to identify SDFG shocks with a narrative sign restriction BVAR approach. Output and prices rise in response to SDFG, despite no econometric restrictions on these variables. The effects are small and consistent with the NK model. We find that changes in expectations play a greater role in transmitting SDFG to the economy than lower retail interest rates.