Can Development Programs Counter Insurgencies? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Afghanistan†
利用2007至2011年随机对照试验，发现阿富汗最大地方治理与发展项目在内陆地区减少了暴力、改善了经济并增加了政府支持，但在靠近巴基斯坦边境的村庄因外国叛乱分子众多反而加剧了暴力。
We exploit a randomized controlled trial conducted between 2007 and 2011 to identify the effect of Afghanistan's largest local governance and development program on the strength of the insurgency. We find that the program reduced violence, improved economic outcomes, and increased government support in interior regions of the country, but increased violence in villages close to the Pakistani border, where foreign insurgents were more numerous. The results suggest that development programs can be effective in suppressing locally driven insurgencies, but may be counterproductive where insurgents are not reliant on the local population for support.